The Georgian expert community continues to interpret the results of the "Brooms revolution". At the end of the month, after the final rise to power of the ''Georgian dream'', it was found out that it would not be easier to redeem the promises on foreign policy, as well as the internal ones" – has concluded the Georgian expert Tengiz Ablotiya December 5, 2012 in the article "Foreign Policy: The Dream and Reality" (data- analytical portal "Georgia Online").
This article contains review of the winner in the recent parliamentary elections in Georgia, a coalition of a billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili –the "Georgian Dream."
"The foreign policy promises of the "dreamers" were extremely controversial and almost incompatible. In particular, supporters of Ivanishvili promised to keep pro-Western course, Georgia's commitment to European integration and NATO membership, but at the same time declared the intention to improve relations with Russia. Bidzina Ivanishvili has repeatedly said that he could convince Russia that the European integration of Georgia will not come into conflict with the interests of Moscow. Future Prime Minister did not say exactly how he intended to convince the Russian leadership; he has created the illusion that he has a plan in this regard. However, last month showed the unreality of promises of the ''Georgian dream'' in this regard ", - has written the author.
He has said that "Medvedev made a condition without which the rapprochement is impossible - Georgia should recognize the new reality'' - that is, the recognition by Russia of the breakaway Georgian territories. This condition is not feasible, because the government, which recognizes the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, will rule a maximum of two weeks in Georgia." This statement seems to be the blatant exaggeration. If in Georgia much longer than a couple of weeks has been ruling a government which during four years unleashed two wars against South Ossetia (in 2004 and 2008), dealing shortly with dissenters (massacre of protesters November 7, 2007 and May 26, 2011), the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia could be perceived by the Georgian people even with gratitude. Or whether Ablotiya believes that the Georgian people like to die for the pipe dreams of their politicians? However, he has expressed not only his own opinion, but most of the Georgian political and intellectual circles, which long ago lost contacts with the aspirations and needs of ordinary Georgian workers.
The paper contains an attempt to divert the officials of Saakashvili from the liability; over them is currently hanging sword of Damocles of new Georgian justice, created by the president himself.
"At this stage Ivanishvili cannot establish the relationship with the West administration - mostly it is due to harsh criticism against him because of the arrest of former officials of the Saakashvili government. At first glance, the ''Georgian Dream'' has an airtight argument - there are no political arrests and the detentions are based on specific criminal charges. However, it is actually a bit different – the majority of the arrests are related to inconclusive , and most importantly, not enough serious charges - assault of subordinates, a fight in the restaurant, which took place one and a half years ago, embezzlement of 3 tons of petrol, etc. Against the background of the pre-electoral propaganda about the terrible mass crimes committed by the nationals, all these essentially minor charges, obviously suggest the view of political motivation "- the author writes.
He predicts a joyless futurefor new Georgian government, "Bidzina Ivanishvili has canceled a planned visit to the United States for an indefinite period - according to him, the reason for cancellation is a busy schedule of the Prime Minister of Georgia. In addition, after the first visit to Brussels, for the next few months is not scheduled any visit abroad - in any case, there is not the official information about it yet. Thus, the foreign policy of Georgia has remained unchanged, but the tactical difficulties have already emerged. "
Against this background, the statements by the high-ranking officials of the new Georgian authorities look optimistic; they insist that the investigation of the crimes committed under the Saakashvili regime, will continue.
"Restoring justice – is a requirement of the Georgian people, said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia Maia Panjikidze, stressing that all the crimes committed under the previous government, should be investigated. '' No matter how to improve social situation of people, it will not cause such a reaction than restoration of justice. Those 3500 statements, which were received by the main prosecutor's office to re-investigate one-or another case, are the evidence of this '', "- said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia Maia Panjikidze (the same edition, the article" Panjikidze:
"Restoring justice –is a requirement of the Georgian people," December 10, 2012). This statement can be considered as a response to the condemnation of the arrests of supporters of Saakashvili by a number of European officials, who consider that the pro-Western orientation of the Georgian president is sufficient to provide the universal legal immunity for him and his entourage.
Amid the criticism ofnew Georgian authorities by top representatives of the U.S., the EU and NATO, a statement of the Ambassador of the European Union in Georgia, Philip Dimitrov, that "Georgia is becoming more transparent, and that`s good - Philip Dimitrov" has sounded as dissonance (the corresponding article in the same edition of 10 December 2012). As we can see, in the EU there is no consensus regarding the ongoing processes in Georgia.
What has said the EU Ambassador Dimitrov (Bulgaria's representative) at the presentation of a special report of the Ombudsman of Georgia at the hotel "Tbilisi Marriott"?
"Georgia has become more transparent in protection of human rights, and it's good, it is very important for democracy and human rights. We were working on this issue with the Georgian side many times. Various issues on the subject are still open, and they have been covered in the reports of the international organizations ", - said Dimitrov, adding that" Georgia should pay more attention to human rights and, fortunately, Georgia is making steps forward in this regard. "
Supporters of Mikhail Saakashvili are not sitting on their hands (or rather, tongues), too.
"We will have to say, as the most shameful moment in the history of Georgia, when the parliament of a sovereign state has adopted a decision that the spies of the country, which occupies Abkhazia, Tskhinvali region, from where were expelled half a million people, who cannot return to their homes, the spies of this country have been declared the political prisoners. This will be one of the most shameful episodes in the history of our country and the representatives of the majority will have to take responsibility for it, "- said the representative of the pro-presidential Georgian party "National Movement " Chiora Taktakishvili, quoted by the same publication in the article "Today is one of the most shameful moments in the history of Georgia - Taktakishvili "( December 10, 2012).
Continuation of the most important strategic direction of the Georgian propaganda for division and separation of peoples of the Russian North Caucasus by hostile elements is covered by another Georgian media - "The Club of Experts".
"The last convention of the World Abkhaz-Abazin Congress has created a new round of the growing confrontation between the Abkhaz political elite and the Circassian (Adyghe) national movement" – has written Giorgi Tsiklauri in his article "The Abkhazians and Circassians - from fraternity to enmity?" (December 4, 2012).
"The rudeness and aggression of Abkhazians have another psychological explanation. They have found themselves in a difficult situation, with a great moral debt to the Circassians - due to the support in the war and of consanguinity. Abkhazians cannot at least on the declarative level support the ''Circassian question,'' while the ''enemy'' Georgia brought up internationally the issue of the need for rehabilitation of the Circassian people. Now everyone can use the recognition of the Circassian genocide as the expression of their solidarity. Logically, the first should be the Abkhazians ", - said the author. As one can see, there is a desire, deftly manipulating the pain points of the Caucasian peoples, to sow discord between the Abkhaz and Circassians - on the one hand and between Abkhazia and Russia - on the other, and to present Georgia as a fair arbiter who stands above them.
Meanwhile, everyone knows that these attacks are dictated by the objective need to divert attention from the processes taking place in Georgia. Currently, the country is being ruled over by President Saakashvili, though with reduced, but still quite broad powers and by the Prime Minister with such powers that any of his predecessors in the history of Georgia has not ever dreamed of. There is glaring contradiction between them and their supporters, which only by some miracle has not yet led to a civil war. In these circumstances, Georgia (especially the losing team of Saakashvili) desperately needs a strong external stimulus, which would channel the discontent of the people electrified by his nearly decade ruling, in the opposite direction from him. Isn`t the recent attack of the South Ossetian border guards from the Georgian side the confirmation of this? There is confidence that, yes.
Let us not forget that the armed forces of Georgia are still under the authority of Saakashvili. At the same time, his position in the country is becoming increasingly more precarious.
"In Georgia is demanded to abolish the institution of the president" - is titled the Article of IA "MediaNews" on December 10, 2012.
"In Georgia is being created the Referendum Constitutional Democratic Initiative Group for the abolition of the presidency. The authors of this idea are calling on all those people who consider this post unnecessary, to participate in this process "- is said in the article.
It is proposed a constitutional-parliamentary form of government, which suggests a "strong national parliament and strong executive power, a head of which, that is the Prime Minister, will be elected by the national parliament."
"In this format, the president and his institution will not even be mentioned. We say good-bye to the president, his staff, governors, his plane and lots of senseless spending once and for all,"- is said in a statement of the authors of the idea, calling themselves the" Constitutional Democratic Party."
It`s dangerous to tease a man under the authority of whom are still the security defence and law enforcement agencies and who on the example of his colleagues is aware of what will await him after he loses his last locus of power. And this cannot inspire him any optimism.
"In the City Court in Tbilisi, at the trial of former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili the judge expelled from the hall and fined 500 lari a lawyer Lali Aptsiauri" - writes "MediaNews" December 10, 2012.
"A judge Khatuna Kharchilava took this decision after a quarrel which had taken place between Lali Aptsiauri and the prosecutor. During the interrogation of the witness Zurab Vanishvili a prosecutor urged Aptsiauri to read the Code of Practice. After the break, Lali Aptsiauri said that the replica of the prosecutor was unethical, and she "will tear off the mentioned Code over the head of the prosecutor," – is stated in the article.
It should be reminded that Lali Aptsiauri is a very experienced and well-known Georgian lawyer, and, regardless of the current political regime in Georgia, she always has her own opinion and is not afraid to express it. If she said so, she had a really solid argument. Thus, in the past she criticized Saakashvili`s regime, though, to no avail. As we see, the courts in Georgia also put pressure on lawyers, as before.
Former Minister of Defence and Internal Affairs Irakli Okruashvili is accused of creating and leadership of the illegal armed groups, which provides for six to nine years of imprisonment. It should also be reminded that in the past the State Minister of Georgia Giorgi Khaindrava spread in the media a statement that directly accused Okruashvili of murdering the South Ossetian soldier Gennady Sanakoev in summer, 2004. However, Okruashvili has not been involved in this case: in Georgia, groaning about the "restoration of the territorial integrity," killing an Ossetian is not considered a crime.
Such an attitude to his former team-mate, his lawyer, the arrests of many of his appointees, the initiative to abolish the post of president and the loss of power cannot make Saakashvili happy, though he is still controlling the military and policing branch. Will he strike back?
Analytical service of IA "Res"
